The forecast of the dollar for the New Year 2015-2016. The forecast of the dollar for 2016 from experts.
Economic problems affected many countries. The growth of the dollar and euro has had a negative impact on the well-being of ordinary citizens. The dollar is a currency in which Russians traditionally store their savings. The country literally froze in anticipation: "And what will happen next?". So, what is the forecast for the dollar for the New Year 2016.
New forecasts of the dollar exchange rate for 2016 in Russia
What will happen next no one can say for sure. After the events of 2014, when the dollar, the euro began to rise, and the ruble to fall, many experts are in no hurry to make accurate forecasts, limiting their assumptions. Will there be a strengthening of the Russian currency in the world market in 2016, and what forecast is the dollar expected for the New Year?
What determines the dollar exchange rate
At present, the ruble exchange rate depends on many nuances, in particular:
the cost of oil;
economic sanctions against the Russian Federation;
payments on foreign currency debts.
The main reasons for the fall of the ruble:
decrease in the cost of oil;
economic sanctions against the Russian Federation.
The economy of the Russian Federation is largely subject to the price of oil. If its value falls, then the ruble falls. The higher it is, the lower the green paper.
The forecast of the dollar for the New Year: what to expect in December
December is a month of peculiar summationthe outcome of the confrontation of America, the European Union on the one hand, and the politics and economy of the Russian Federation on the other. Some experts are sure that at the end of this year it will become clear that the pressure on Russia is unpromising. And for countries that support economic and political sanctions, they will be disastrous. Europe depends on Russia's energy carriers, and without them it can freeze. However, even the optimists do not believe in the possibility of strengthening the ruble above the level of 42 per dollar.
Many believe that the peak of the crisis is over, andThe current course is justified economically. The Central Bank also believes this, assuring that on the eve of the New 2016 economic situation will improve. The trend will continue in 2016.
The forecast of the dollar for the New Year from the Ministry of Economic Development is 60 rubles at an oil price of $ 50 per barrel, which is budgeted. This is evidenced by new data published on the site.
According to Andrei Belousov, an assistant to the head of the Russian Federation, the ruble's price in early 2016 will fluctuate between 65-70 per dollar.
As for the euro, American and European banks expect that by the New Year the green paper will approach the euro, and in 2016 they will equalize.
How much will the ruble cost in 2016?
As a result of the decline of the American economyanalysts are actively predicting the fall of the dollar. The mass media assure that the economic recession in the US is over. But the world community does not hurry to believe these statements.
Experts believe that in 2016 the dollar will fall sharply due to an increase in the external debt of the United States. The trade deficit that is observed today also contributes to economic vulnerability.
And what about Russia? What sways foreign debts, then the situation is somewhat better. However, isolation of the country and sanctions, unstable domestic industry, as well as the cost of oil give a disappointing result. Experts believe that the country's economic crisis will last at least two more years. At the same time, they insist that it is not worth waiting for a rise in oil prices for several years, and Russia's economy has many internal problems that pull it to the bottom.
Most experts predict that the dollar will grow, but they give different figures:
experts agency APEKON believe that in early 2016, the dollar will cost 90-100 rubles;
investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the dollar will be equal to 58-60 rubles;
American experts assure that the price of green paper will amount to 75 rubles;
Russian experts are not so pessimistic and suggest that this figure will not rise more than 61 rubles at the beginning of the year, and after that it will drop to 55 rubles;
employees of the Gaidar Institute in 2016, the average value of the dollar at an oil price of $ 70 per barrel is projected at 51 rubles, and at a cost of $ 60 - 52.7 rubles.
Let's hope that the worst predictions will not come true, and the ruble will be strengthened.
What is the Russians preparing for?
It is desirable for citizens of Russia to tune in to what,that in the near future cardinally nothing will change, and begin preparations for the New Year. Especially since many already understand that it is unlikely that the dollar will cost about 30 rubles. At present, Russia is inclined to cooperate with China, therefore, perhaps in the near future, Russians will be interested not in the dollar's forecast for the New Year, but in the value of the yuan.
But the weather for New Year's holidays, like the coursethe ruble in recent times, is expected to change. However, our compatriots are already accustomed to sudden changes in weather conditions during the New Year holidays. The main thing is to quickly orient yourself in changing clothes, and a festive mood can not be overshadowed by anything.
