Guessing on Google. Elections 2010

As you know, it is with the help of search enginespeople are looking for interesting information on the Internet. Google - one of the most popular search services in Ukraine, so its statistics allow you to accurately judge the popularity of certain search queries in Ukraine.

For example, graph of the popularity of the search query "elections" in Ukraine from 2004 to the present.

The numbers on this and the following graphs show the proportion of searches for a given query inthe total number of searches made in Google for a certain time. These numbers do not represent the absolute values ​​of the search volume, since the data is shown in a normalized form and displayed on a scale of 0 to 100.

Each point on the graph corresponds to the maximum value, i.e. 100. For example, suppose that the interest in the search query of the ski increased sharply in November. The system assigns this peak a value of 100. Now suppose that in December there was a significant decrease in interest and the next peak was about half the November time. This peak is assigned a value of 50, and so on. If there is not enough data, 0 is displayed. The numbers indicated next to the search queries above the graph are the total values.

As can be seen from the graph above, the maximum number of search requests "elections" was on November 2004. It was during the late autumn - early winter 2004 events that went down in history as the "orange revolution". The next peak on the chart, March 2006, indicates the high interest of Internet users from Ukraine to the next parliamentary elections. Peaks attributable to October 2007 and May 2008 associated with extraordinary parliamentary elections inUkraine. Thus, this graph very graphically illustrates the political situation in the country and what interest it causes in the population. As you can see, compared to 2004, the popularity of the "election" request is now very small.

Internet ratings presidential candidates for elections 2010 is made not a little. We'll talk with you again about Google statistics. Let's see together dynamics of popularity search queries related to the surnames of "main" presidential candidates, starting from 2004 to the present day.

Please note that the popularity of the requests indicated on this chart is more or less consistent with the "distribution of forces" following the results of the presidential election in 2004. Based on this can we assume that there is some dependence between the popularity of the request with the name of the candidate and his real popularity among the population?

Let's look at the graph of the dynamics of popularity of the same requests for the last year, the last 3 months and a month.

As you can see from these graphs, the number of search queries in Google related to the name of the presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko higher than the number of requests related to the names of other candidates.

And now let us turn to the figures of official sociological research. So, according to a poll conducted by the Center for Social and Marketing Research SOCIS from September 20 to October 1, 28.7% of respondents are ready to vote for Viktor Yanukovych, 19% for Tymoshenko, 19.2% for Yatsenyuk, 8.2% for A.Yatsenyuk, 3.6% for P. Symonenko, 2 for Lytvyn, 9%, V.Yushchenko - 2.8%, S.Tigipko - 2.6%.

The survey conducted FOM-Ukraine LLC in the period from September 26 to October 4, showed that 26.8% of respondents are ready to vote for Yanukovych, 15.6% for Tymoshenko. The leader of the "Front for Change" A.Yatseniuk is supported by 9.3% of Ukrainians.

According to the poll R & B Group, held on October 2-12, for the leader of the Partyregions are ready to vote 30.2% of respondents, 18.5% - for the leader of BYuT. At the same time, 8.9% would support the leader of the "Front for Change" A. Yatsenyuk, 4.1% - the leader of the Bloc of Left Forces P. Symonenko, 3.1% - the current president V. Yushchenko, 2.7% - S.Tigipko, 2.4% - Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, V. Lytvyn.

According to a survey from the company TNS, held from December 7 to December 14, 2009, for V. Yanukovych is ready to vote 26.3% of the vote, for Tymoshenko 18.6% and for S. Tigipko - 5.6%. Following are V. Yushchenko with 4.2% rating, A. Yatseniuk with 4.1%, V. Lytvyn with 3.1% and P. Simonenko with 2.3%.

On January 17, 2010 at the age of 20:00, the doors of the polling stations closed behind the last citizens who on that day expressed their will by secret ballot on the basis of universal, equal and direct suffrage (according to the Constitution of Ukraine). From this moment, a scrupulous vote count has been started, which may take more than a day.

As reported on the official website of the CEC, onAccording to 91.16% of processed protocols, 22 279 455 voters in Ukraine participated in the voting. 1.63% of the ballots in Ukraine are declared invalid.

In the elections on January 17 in Ukraine was heldNational Exit Fair 2010, organized jointly by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology and the Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Studies named after Alexander Razumkov.

According to the chairman of the Democraticinitiatives, "Ilko Kucheriva, a total of 12,546 respondents were polled in 240 polling stations. On average, 74 voters were interviewed on each site. The statistical error of the sample does not exceed 1.3%.

An interesting picture of the data obtained when comparing the results of voting of urban and rural population. How different are the numbers for each candidate?

According to the data published on the official website of the National exit poll "2010, the urban and rural population of Ukraine voted as follows:

Data of the National exit-poll'2010 by type of settlement (in%)

Which of these can be inferred? After reviewing the data provided by the National Exit Poll 2010 and graphs of the dynamics of the popularity of the relevant search queries, one can note that such candidates as Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Tigipko, occupy a leading position not only according to the CEC and exit polls, but also on the "Google-version". For example, according to the exit poll, villagersgave up most of their votes to Yulia Tymoshenko, in second place - Viktor Yanukovych, but on the third with 9.4% of votes - Yushchenko, although according to the survey of the urban population, the three leaders look like Yanukovich, Tymoshenko, Tigipko. Why are the numbers so different, do you think?

Google's statistics show that usersoften enter in the search string queries related to such popular keywords as "timoshenko" and "Yanukovych." And what kind of information interests users of the Google search engine? We offer a look at statistics of the most popular search queries related to the terms "timoshenko" and "Yanukovych" for the last 30 days in Ukraine: